Riding the Wave

It seems that the conventional wisdom among political pundits is that the Democratic Party will indeed pick up the 15 seats needed to become to majority party in the U.S. House of Representatives. Democrats need to win 6 seats to take over the Senate, and that remains a distinct possibility as well. What there is no consensus among the talking heads about, however, is exactly how many Congressional seats Democrats will win. Many people cite the Republican Party's monetary edge, the power of incumbency, and the GOP's superior GOTV operation as reasons that, despite overwhelming desire for change, the Democrat’s gains will come close to equaling those of the Republicans in 1994. However, noted political analyst Stuart Rothenberg begs to differ:

“With only a couple of weeks until Election Day, we know there will be a Democratic wave on Nov. 7. And we can be fairly certain that by historical standards it will be high - possibly very high. But we still don’t know how many Republicans once considered safe will be swept out of office. The national political environment currently is worse than it was in 1994, when the Democrats lost 52 House seats, eight Senate seats and 10 governorships, and when Republicans won GOP control of the House for the first time in decades.

With the national environment being as it is - and given the last round of redistricting, which limits possible Democratic gains - Republicans probably are at risk to lose as few as 45 seats and as many as 60 seats, based on historical results. Given how the national mood compares to previous wave years and to the GOP’s 15-seat House majority, Democratic gains almost certainly would fall to the upper end of that range.

The paucity of competitive districts limits Republican risk, but how much? Unfortunately, I don’t have an answer. But if redistricting cuts that kind of wave by half, Democrats would gain between 22 and 30 seats next month. And if the new districts slice Democratic gains by a smaller but still significant one-third, Democrats would pick up from 30 to 45 seats.”

As Mike Podhorzer of at AFL-CIO has said: "Easily forgotten is how close 15 of the Republicans' victories were in 1994. Had Democrats in key districts won a combined 52,000 more votes, there would have been no "Speaker Gingrich."

Every vote counts. Email or call everyone in your address book/phone and remind them to vote Democratic on November 7th. Be a part of making this country better.