Republican Party On the Verge of Extinction Outside the South

While the Democratic Party recorded gains all over the map last Tuesday, they were most pronounced in the Northeast, Midwest, and Western parts of the country. Notably, however, Republicans managed to moderate their losses in the South.

While that fact may have saved the GOP from being an even smaller minority in the near term, they should see it as no cause for celebration. As the AP notes, The Republican Party has become almost extinct in the Northeast, suffering the loss of moderate members in Rhode Island, Connecticut and New Hampshire. Although a few moderate Republicans like Chris Shays in Connecticut and Olympia Snowe in Maine survived the Wave of 2006, when they retire they are likely to be replaced by Democrats. And in New York State, the GOP is wondering how much longer is can hold out before being completely wiped out. The Republican Party is now "the party of Dixie."

Thomas F. Schaller of Salon wonders if the Democrats aren't better off taking a different approach to the South. Not ignoring it altogether, but putting it behind other regions in priority. Schaller notes that certain areas of the South, such as North Carolina's Research Triangle and Northern Virginia, present opportunities for Democrats. However:

"Over four decades, by fits and starts, the Republicans captured the South. With the ballast and votes that capture provided, the GOP emerged as the national majority party from the top of the ballot to the bottom by 2000. Democrats did not want to write off the region that had been their historic heartland. It had always held the key to political power, since the party that controlled the region had typically dominated national politics. The importance of the South seemed accentuated by the shift of population and House seats and electoral votes to the region at the expense of the Northeast and the Rust Belt. Democrats felt they had to run to the right, à la Harold Ford, in order to compete in the region, and they felt they had to compete in the region to run the country.

Yet the GOP's majorities were thin. Bush won in 2000 despite losing the popular vote. The Senate majority that was just voted out of office represented fewer Americans than did the Democratic minority. Gerrymandering has exaggerated Republican shares in the national and state legislatures beyond their underlying support.

In short, Republicans have squeezed every last vote out of their mostly white, largely Southern, highly divisive, screw-the-coasts national strategy. First the South turned Republicans; now the Republicans have turned Southern. Their identity is becoming more and more bound to a philosophy and a region. Last week was the first sign that the electoral accountants are knocking on the door, asking to see the GOP's receipts.

Democrats, meanwhile, now have a great opportunity to build a national majority. They need to continue consolidating their control over the coasts, turn the purple Midwest blue, and pick off selected seats in the West. The 2006 midterms were a big step in that direction. Democrats flipped about 30 percent of the GOP-held House seats in the Northeast, about 15 percent in the Midwest, and 10 percent in the Far West. In the South, their "flip rate" was just 6 percent. After last week, Connecticut's Chris Shays is the only Republican among New England's 22 seats."

The Democratic Party has a chance to confine the GOP to the South and a select few, underpopulated conservative states such as Utah. Their message largely does not resonate outside of the South, where race, evangelism, and the absence of strong unions combine to keep the GOP the dominant party. In 2008 and beyond, if played right, the Democrats can further isolate the Republican Party and truly build a national party that represents almost the entire country.